Future trends in big box warehousing
We take a look at some of the trends in big box warehousing and how they affect the future outlook for this year and beyond.
The state of big box warehousing in the UK looks healthy, especially compared against the performance of the wider economy, which saw a 0.9 percent growth through 2024. Although up on the 0.1 percent growth of 2023, this lacklustre performance was below predicted estimates. However, big box warehousing seemed to buck trends – showing double digit growth in 2025.
The growth of big box warehousing
New analysis of the industrial and logistics sector by Avison Young reports an eleven percent increase in “big box” take-up in 2024. The global commercial real estate services firm, headquartered in Toronto, highlights a notable rebound in the take-up of grade A big-box distribution units over 100,000 sq ft in 2024.
A total of 21.2 million sq ft was leased in the UK throughout the year – an eleven percent increase from 2023. Although this figure remains 33 percent below the five-year average, this is largely due to a comparison skewed by exceptional demand during the global pandemic.
The Midlands is a key focus of demand
Avison Young says improving occupier sentiment and a surge in deal-making helped push 2024 volumes above last year’s levels. The Midlands continues to dominate the market. It accounts for 42 percent of all leasing activity in 2024.
The “Golden Triangle” is an area of the Midlands comprising of around 289 square miles that is renowned for its high density of warehousing and distribution facilities. It encompasses Nottingham, Birmingham and a large stretch of the area alongside the M1 between Nottingham and Northampton. Being within a four-hour drive of 90 percent of the UK population, its easy access to the M1, M6 and M42 motorways make it a prime location.
Prime locations in this area remain a key draw for both occupiers and investors, underlining its status as a hotspot for logistics and distribution activity.
Widening the Golden Triangle
Recruitment specialist Morgan King reports that the high demand for space within the Golden Triangle area comes with consequences. It says, “Rent prices have increased and with current escalation of energy prices alongside the cost of living leading to labour price issues, there are several obstacles and difficulties for those wanting to invest in the region.”
Nevertheless, with online shopping predicted to make up 35 percent of all retail this year, pressure is on retailers to meet consumer demand for home deliveries. As a result, they are beginning to look elsewhere, with the M40 being a strong contender and the M62 also seeing a great deal of investment, providing similar opportunities in the North West and further connections.
Growth in average warehouse size
Data from London-based real estate business Savills shows that warehouses are continuing to get bigger. Its UKWA Report 2024: The Size and Make-Up of the UK Warehousing Sector, published in April 2024, found that the trend for larger warehouse units has seen the average-sized, build-to-suit unit increase from 297,000 sq ft in 2015 to 333,000 sq ft through 2023.
The survey suggested that this trend is likely to continue and will mean that proposed sites for warehouse development will be built out at a faster rate than their predecessors.
Another interesting development reported in the survey has been in regard to the eaves of newly constructed units. For speculatively constructed units, the average eaves height has been steadily rising from an average of 12.2m in 2015 to a high point of 14.2m in 2022. However, 2023 saw this average fall back to 13.6m, perhaps because of the reticence of some planning departments to approve planning permission on taller units.
A changing customer base
The Savills data also indicates that in recent years, manufacturers have become an increasingly important consumer of big box warehouse space.
It says, “Since the pandemic, much has been made of the concept of near/re-shoring as supply chains continue to adapt to global instability. This is highlighted by our data, which shows that since 2021, the sector that has seen the most growth is manufacturing.”
Occupation of big box warehousing space by manufacturers has risen by 32 percent and, at the time of the survey, accounted for 58.5m sq ft of warehouse space. The report authors expect this element of the market to continue growing as companies look to bring elements of their manufacturing processes closer to home.
Indeed, it is likely that this trend, identified in the 2024 survey, is likely to continue and, perhaps, accelerate through 2025 and beyond. The increasing uncertainty over global supply chains as a result of the trade policies of the USA since the Trump Administration took office in early 2025 add additional pressure for manufacturing supply chains.
What next?
As big box warehousing continues to evolve, now is the time to think strategically about your logistics footprint. Whether you’re expanding, relocating or simply exploring your options, our team can help.
Get in touch to discuss how MLR can support your next big move.